Sources

This page summarises and links, it does not reproduce anyone's text. All sources named here come with usage rights that do not cover verbatim reproduction.

The tiles above show, per source, which chapter it supports.

What the sources support. The Bogleheads thread is the primary source: the original description, the later adjustment of the weights and the community's objections in their original form. It supports the rule and the history, not its transferability to Europe.

The repository HFEA-Deutschland and the accompanying series on r/mauerstrassenwetten recompute the strategy with European products, European data series and German tax rules. They support the European product question and the tax effect. Their assessment of the leveraged shorter-maturity bond block comes out negative; it is in part 4.

That the rebalancing date scatters without producing a pattern one could use in advance has been recomputed publicly: modern_football compares the possible dates within the rhythm against each other.

What no source supports. None of the works named shows that the counter-movement of stocks and long-dated government bonds will hold in the future. That is exactly what the strategy depends on.

Open questions. How the strategy behaves through a full decade of rising rates is thinly documented. So is which of the European bond routes fares best in the long run.

What LETF.io shows and what it does not. The backtest computes on the closing prices of the two blocks, since both exist, with no model in between, and it shows derived quantities only. The chart in the chapter Rule shows the same years on the price series.

What we do not show are the index providers' raw levels, for which we have no licence, and no hit rates or probabilities, because a single course of the past is no basis for them. Nor do we offer a parameter search.